My lab explores the dynamics of the coupled Earth system toward useful predictions of impacts ranging from marine ecosystems to human health. Specifically, we aim to understand the circuitry of the tropical ocean and atmosphere, its interaction with ecosystems and with higher latitude regions, how and why the climate system has changed in the past, and how climate will continue to change in the future–both naturally and as driven by human activities. Through teaching, I aim to equip students with the tools to investigate, communicate, and act intelligently on matters of global change.
One of my primary research objectives is to understand the dynamics of Earth's climate at global and regional scales. How and why does climate vary from year to year, decade to decade, century to century, and beyond? A particular focus is on the dynamics of the tropical ocean and atmosphere as a coupled system, such as the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and other intrinsic modes of climate variability. How do the tropics, extratropics, and high latitude regions interact? How will key aspects of Earth's climate respond to the radiative forcing associated with greenhouse gas emissions over the course of this century? I use observations (including satellites) and numerical models to explore these questions.
"No challenge poses a greater threat to future generations than climate change," said President Barack Obama in his State of the Union address on January 20, 2015. Climate change is a global problem, but the impacts are felt locally. "...rising oceans, longer, hotter heat waves, dangerous droughts and floods, and massive disruptions that can trigger greater migration and conflict and hunger around the globe. The Pentagon says that climate change poses immediate risks to our national security. We should act like it."
In my lab, we combine "big data" (dozens of global climate models, satellites, etc.) as well as pinpoint measurements to understand the impacts of climate variability and change on marine ecosystems, transportation, freshwater resources, sea level, and tropical cyclones.
The thermal inertial of the climate system is in the ocean, so understanding the physics governing the storage of heat by the ocean and the movement of heat and other properties by currents is essential to understanding climate variability and change. Ocean circulation also serves as the mediator between large-scale climate variability and impacts on marine ecosystems. I seek to better understand the ocean circulation, particularly in the tropical Pacific, and translate such knowledge into improved overall understanding of global climate dynamics and projected impacts on marine ecosystems.
Honors and Awards
- Sloan Research Fellowship, Alfred P. Sloan Foundation
- Moltz Fellowship, Ocean and Climate Change Institute, WHOI
- Lamont Postdoctoral Fellowship, LDEO of Columbia University
- Meteorological Satellite Applications Award, National Weather Association
- Hilldale Undergraduate Research Fellowship, University of Wisconsin–Madison
- Kendall, MS, M Poti and KB Karnauskas (2016), Climate change and larval transport in the ocean: fractional effects from physical and physiological factors. Glob. Change Biol. Version: 1 22 (4) 1532-1547, issn: 1354-1013, ids: DF7CN, doi: 10.1111/gcb.13159, PubMed ID: 26554877
- Capotondi, A, AT Wittenberg, M Newman, E Di Lorenzo, JY Yu, P Braconnot, J Cole, B Dewitte, B Giese, E Guilyardi, FF Jin, K Karnauskas, B Kirtman, T Lee, N Schneider, Y Xue and SW Yeh (2015), Understanding ENSO Diversity. Bull. Amer. Meteorol. Soc. Version: 1 96 (6) 921-938, issn: 0003-0007, ids: CN1WZ, doi: 10.1175/BAMS-D-13-00117.1
- DeCarlo, TM, KB Karnauskas, KA Davis and GTF Wong (2015), Climate modulates internal wave activity in the Northern South China Sea. Geophys. Res. Lett. Version: 1 42 (3) 831-838, issn: 0094-8276, ids: CD8OT, doi: 10.1002/2014GL062522
- Karnauskas, KB, JP Donnelly, HC Barkley and JE Martin (2015), Coupling between air travel and climate. Nature Clim. Chang. Version: 1 5 (12) 1068-1073, issn: 1758-678X, ids: CY4UA, doi: 10.1038/NCLIMATE2715
- Karnauskas, KB, S Jenouvrier, CW Brown and R Murtugudde (2015), Strong sea surface cooling in the eastern equatorial Pacific and implications for Galapagos Penguin conservation. Geophys. Res. Lett. Version: 1 42 (15) 6432-6437, issn: 0094-8276, ids: CQ2FM, doi: 10.1002/2015GL064456
- Maloney, ED, SJ Camargo, E Chang, B Colle, R Fu, KL Geil, Q Hu, XA Jiang, N Johnson, KB Karnauskas, J Kinter, B Kirtman, S Kumar, B Langenbrunner, K Lombardo, LN Long, A Mariotti, JE Meyerson, KC Mo, JD Neelin, ZT Pan, R Seager, Y Serra, A Seth, J Sheffield, J Stroeve, J Thibeault, SP Xie, CZ Wang, B Wyman and M Zhao (2014), North American Climate in CMIP5 Experiments: Part III: Assessment of Twenty-First-Century Projections*. J. Clim. Version: 1 27 (6) 2230-2270, issn: 0894-8755, ids: AC7CO, doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00273.1
- Criscitiello, AS, SB Das, KB Karnauskas, MJ Evans, KE Frey, I Joughin, EJ Steig, JR McConnell and B Medley (2014), Tropical Pacific Influence on the Source and Transport of Marine Aerosols to West Antarctica. J. Clim. Version: 1 27 (3) 1343-1363, issn: 0894-8755, ids: 294YY, doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00148.1
- Drenkard, EJ and KB Karnauskas (2014), Strengthening of the Pacific Equatorial Undercurrent in the SODA Reanalysis: Mechanisms, Ocean Dynamics, and Implications. J. Clim. Version: 1 27 (6) 2405-2416, issn: 0894-8755, ids: AC7CO, doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00359.1
- Karnauskas, KB and CC Ummenhofer (2014), On the dynamics of the Hadley circulation and subtropical drying. Clim. Dyn. Version: 1 42 (10-Sep) 2259-2269, issn: 0930-7575, ids: AI6KW, doi: 10.1007/s00382-014-2129-1
- Karnauskas, KB (2014), Arctic forcing of decadal variability in the tropical Pacific Ocean in a high-resolution global coupled GCM. Clim. Dyn. Version: 1 42 (12-Nov) 3375-3388, issn: 0930-7575, ids: AI6KX, doi: 10.1007/s00382-013-1836-3
- Newby, PE, BN Shuman, JP Donnelly, KB Karnauskas and J Marsicek (2014), Centennial-to-millennial hydrologic trends and variability along the North Atlantic Coast, USA, during the Holocene. Geophys. Res. Lett. Version: 1 41 (12) 4300-4307, issn: 0094-8276, ids: AN0SM, doi: 10.1002/2014GL060183
- Leslie, WR and KB Karnauskas (2014), The Equatorial Undercurrent and TAO Sampling Bias from a Decade at SEA. J. Atmos. Oceanic Technol. Version: 1 31 (9) 2015-2025, issn: 0739-0572, ids: AO4WM, doi: 10.1175/JTECH-D-13-00262.1
- Gierach, MM, M Messie, T Lee, KB Karnauskas and MH Radenac (2013), Biophysical responses near equatorial islands in the Western Pacific Ocean during El Nino/La Nina transitions. Geophys. Res. Lett. Version: 1 40 (20) 5473-5479, issn: 0094-8276, ids: 301DY, doi: 10.1002/2013GL057828
- Karnauskas, KB (2013), Can we distinguish canonical El Nino from Modoki?. Geophys. Res. Lett. Version: 1 40 (19) 5246-5251, issn: 0094-8276, ids: 243JB, doi: 10.1002/grl.51007
- Karnauskas, KB, R Seager, A Giannini and AJ Busalacchi (2013), A simple mechanism for the climatological midsummer drought along the Pacific coast of Central America. Atmosfera Version: 1 26 (2) 261-281, issn: 0187-6236, ids: 186ZZ
- Sheffield, J, SJ Camargo, R Fu, Q Hu, XA Jiang, N Johnson, KB Karnauskas, ST Kim, J Kinter, S Kumar, B Langenbrunner, E Maloney, A Mariotti, JE Meyerson, JD Neelin, S Nigam, ZT Pan, A Ruiz-Barradas, R Seager, YL Serra, DZ Sun, CZ Wang, SP Xie, JY Yu, T Zhang and M Zhao (2013), North American Climate in CMIP5 Experiments. Part II: Evaluation of Historical Simulations of Intraseasonal to Decadal Variability. J. Clim. Version: 1 26 (23) 9247-9290, issn: 0894-8755, ids: 253AN, doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00593.1
- Karnauskas, KB, JE Smerdon, R Seager and JF Gonzalez-Rouco (2012), A Pacific Centennial Oscillation Predicted by Coupled GCMs. J. Clim. Version: 1 25 (17) 5943-5961, issn: 0894-8755, ids: 003TF, doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00421.1
- Karnauskas, KB and AL Cohen (2012), Equatorial refuge amid tropical warming. Nature Clim. Chang. Version: 1 2 (7) 530-534, issn: 1758-678X, ids: 972AS, doi: 10.1038/NCLIMATE1499
- Karnauskas, KB, GC Johnson and R Murtugudde (2012), An Equatorial Ocean Bottleneck in Global Climate Models. J. Clim. Version: 1 25 (1) 343-349, issn: 0894-8755, ids: 876TG, doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00059.1
- Cantin, NE, AL Cohen, KB Karnauskas, AM Tarrant and DC McCorkle (2010), Ocean Warming Slows Coral Growth in the Central Red Sea. Science Version: 1 329 (5989) 322-325, issn: 0036-8075, ids: 625VW, doi: 10.1126/science.1190182, PubMed ID: 20647466
- Karnauskas, KB, R Murtugudde and AJ Busalacchi (2010), Observing the Galapagos-EUC Interaction: Insights and Challenges. J. Phys. Oceanogr. Version: 1 40 (12) 2768-2777, issn: 0022-3670, ids: 708LH, doi: 10.1175/2010JPO4461.1
- Karnauskas, KB, R Seager, A Kaplan, Y Kushnir and MA Cane (2009), Observed Strengthening of the Zonal Sea Surface Temperature Gradient across the Equatorial Pacific Ocean. J. Clim. Version: 1 22 (16) 4316-4321, issn: 0894-8755, ids: 481IW, doi: 10.1175/2009JCLI2936.1
- Karnauskas, KB and AJ Busalacchi (2009), Mechanisms for the Interannual Variability of SST in the East Pacific Warm Pool. J. Clim. Version: 1 22 (6) 1375-1392, issn: 0894-8755, ids: 431ZT, doi: 10.1175/2008JCLI2467.1
- Karnauskas, KB and AJ Busalacchi (2009), The Role of SST in the East Pacific Warm Pool in the Interannual Variability of Central American Rainfall. J. Clim. Version: 1 22 (10) 2605-2623, issn: 0894-8755, ids: 453CG, doi: 10.1175/2008JCLI2468.1
- Karnauskas, KB, A Ruiz-Barradas, S Nigam and AJ Busalacchi (2008), North American droughts in ERA-40 global and NCEP North American Regional Reanalyses: A palmer drought severity index perspective. J. Clim. Version: 1 21 (10) 2102-2123, issn: 0894-8755, ids: 306QA, doi: 10.1175/2007JCLI1837.1
- Karnauskas, KB, AJ Busalacchi and R Murtugudde (2008), Low-frequency variability and remote forcing of gap winds over the east Pacific warm pool. J. Clim. Version: 1 21 (19) 4901-4918, issn: 0894-8755, ids: 353WO, doi: 10.1175/2008JCLI1771.1
- Karnauskas, KB, R Murtugudde and AJ Busalacchi (2008), The Effect of the Galapagos Islands on ENSO in Forced Ocean and Hybrid Coupled Models. J. Phys. Oceanogr. Version: 1 38 (11) 2519-2534, issn: 0022-3670, ids: 381TQ, doi: 10.1175/2008JPO3848.1
- Karnauskas, KB, R Murtugudde and AJ Busalacchi (2007), The effect of the Galapagos Islands on the equatorial Pacific cold tongue. J. Phys. Oceanogr. Version: 1 37 (5) 1266-1281, issn: 0022-3670, ids: 172LD, doi: 10.1175/JPO3048.1
- Karnauskas, KB (2006), The African meridional OLR contrast as a diagnostic for Atlantic tropical cyclone activity and implications for predictability. Geophys. Res. Lett. Version: 1 33 (6) , Art. No. L06809, issn: 0094-8276, ids: 026ND, doi: 10.1029/2005GL024865